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Long Term Vulnerability Assessment

To help better understand the potential vulnerability of the SFPUC Regional Water System (RWS) to uncertain future conditions, SFPUC partnered with The Water Research Foundation to develop a long-term vulnerability assessment (LTVA) of the RWS. The study was conducted by University of Massachusetts Hydrosystems Research Group with input from National Center for Atmospheric Research, other climate scientists, and Deltares.

The goal of the LTVA is to help quantitatively and qualitatively assess to what extent climate change will be a threat to the RWS in comparison to, or in combination with, other external drivers of change over the next 50 years (2020-2070). More specifically, the assessment aims to answer the following questions:

  • Under what conditions and when will the RWS no longer meet system performance criteria?
  • Is climate change the most important driver of vulnerability for the RWS and if not, what is?

While climate change is the driver of change that triggered this study, the intent is to understand the effects of climate change in the context of effects from other drivers of change on the RWS.

 

University of Massachusetts Amherst Hydrosystems Research Group and Water Research Foundation produced an errata document for the 2021 LTVA. The errata corrects a modeling error in the published 2021 Long-Term Vulnerability Assessment that displayed reduced impacts of new Instream Flow Releases under the 2018 Bay Delta Plan Amendments.

The errata, dated December 2024, modifies conclusions of the 2021 document related to the effects of potential future instream flow requirements.  A link to the errata is below, along with links to the 2021 LTVA document.

  LTVA Errata Dated December 2024