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Long Term Vulnerability Assessment

To help better understand the potential vulnerability of the SFPUC Regional Water System (RWS) to uncertain future conditions, SFPUC partnered with The Water Research Foundation to develop a long-term vulnerability assessment (LTVA) of the RWS. The study was conducted by University of Massachusetts Hydrosystems Research Group with input from National Center for Atmospheric Research, other climate scientists, and Deltares.

The goal of the LTVA is to help quantitatively and qualitatively assess to what extent climate change will be a threat to the RWS in comparison to, or in combination with, other external drivers of change over the next 50 years (2020-2070). More specifically, the assessment aims to answer the following questions:

  • Under what conditions and when will the RWS no longer meet system performance criteria?
  • Is climate change the most important driver of vulnerability for the RWS and if not, what is?

While climate change is the driver of change that triggered this study, the intent is to understand the effects of climate change in the context of effects from other drivers of change on the RWS.

As of April 2024, discussions with the University of Massachusetts Amherst Hydrosystems Research Group have confirmed a modeling error in the published 2021 Long-Term Vulnerability Assessment that displayed reduced impacts of new Instream Flow Releases under the 2018 Bay Delta Plan Amendments. 


We understand that Water Research Foundation and UMass are working to correct this error and issue an Errata. We will post the corrected version when it is available.